Brisant scoopje van politico.eu

Als opfrisser hier twee topics over de machtsverhoudingen en proxy-verhoudingen in Libië, of het bovenstaande filmpje natuurlijk. En dan nu de scoop: "A draft 10-page document prepared by the EU’s foreign policy arm and obtained by POLITICO sets out a range of options to bolster a cease-fire in the volatile North African country — from offering advice to a Libyan-led effort through to deploying a fully fledged EU Miltary and Observation Mission, complete with land and air elements. The document even mentions the possibility of a military mission that would have the power to conduct its own operations in Libya, with up to two EU brigades comprising between 5,000 and 10,000 personnel in total. But the document says this option has been “excluded at this stage,” noting “the political and physical risks” of such an operation would be “far-reaching."

Als hoofdreden dit hoornaarsnest te betreden wordt "to reinforce EU credibility as a security actor in the Southern neighborhood" aangedragen door chef BuZa Josep Borrell. Nou, wellicht kan de EU zich eerst even richten op diens geloofwaardigheid in Europa, maar in Brussel denken ze groter.

Sowieso maf om zoiets in EU-verband te doen. Want Italië steunt de Turkse zijde, en Frankrijk steunt hun tegenstander krijgsheer Khalifa Haftar. Het rapport schat de dreiging voor het personeel van zo'n EU-missie in Libië dan ook hoog in. "The threat level for EU military presence in Libya is assessed as very high. This is especially true for an EU Force positioning itself between the parties to the conflict. Due to the support provided by third states and proxies, the amount of military equipment available to both parties is significant."

Nieuwe drone-supermacht Turkije speelt daar nu trouwens de doorslaggevende rol, net als in Armenië.